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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a firm stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "significant consequences" during the summer in case Putin persisted hindering peace negotiations, Trump ultimately introduced considerable penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This decision substantially hindered Putin's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, which was drafted by American and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or EU involvement, the former president has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's initiative would in practice reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the initiative in reality weaken that same autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his corporate experience, the former president seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a part of Ukrainian land will please the president. However, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a charred swath of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear goal to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an enticing example for the Russian people of the accountable government that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although keeping in status the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon the entire this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unable to capture in more than a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

This region is the location of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that constitute a key barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, giving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital in case he later opt to resume the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would facilitate additional hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal places no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, the plan declares: "Every extremist ideology and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the plan makes Russia promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated similar treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied land in the Donbas to the government – how should the international community have confidence in this commitment this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on western security guarantees. Although the plan promises a "strong coordinated defense action" if the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the security presence, presumptively led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from restoring his weakened military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Concern

Another side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to react with force to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not